Tough Days Ahead For Nepali Leaders

The decade-long civil war that killed over 13,000 people in Nepal formally came to an end on 21st November with the signing off of Comprehensive Peace Accord. There will be no front page news on deaths related to encounter, ambush and shoot outs. No Nepali would fear to travel conflict affected districts like Rukum, Rolpa and Dang. The Maoists will be confined to UN-monitored camps, without their arms. Constituent assembly (CA) elections will be held to draft a new constitution and decide the future of the monarchy. The war indeed has ended with the beginning of the challenges for Nepali leaders.

Nepali leaders will now have to successfully deal with many socio-political problems to maintain a sustainable peace. However, three issues, rehabilitation of Maoist cadre, arms management, and problems pertaining landlessness, are foremost challenges that need immediate focus. According to Maoist Leader Prachanda, his People Liberation Army (PLA) has 35,000 Maoist militias. They would remain in fixed cantonments monitored by UN until Nepal has its peaceful transformation. Government will supply the foods during this period. But once this period gets over dreadful problems may arise.

Merging of PLA with Nepal Army (NA) after the CA elections is one probability regarding future of PLA. But NA cannot accommodate 35,000 armies at a time. Moreover, facts like age and education are important in NA recruitment but as Maoist never had or exposed their army recruitment criteria the number of Maoist militia fit for NA is highly uncertain.

Surely, the challenges related to children and female militia, are very critical especially in the context when the Maoist topmost leaders themselves are not sure on the number of children and female the PLA has. Children militias have lost their educational opportunities but they know how to make bombs and plant an ambush. In the absence of assured livelihood, the children may use this ill talent to make out the livings as has been in Sierra Leone and Angola. Children could also be used by others in criminal activities like drug trafficking, looting and kidnapping for ransom. Not to forget the psychological turmoil, feeling of inferiority and low self-esteem are the sufferings that the children will go through during this transitional phase that may lead to disruptive consequences.

As women sexuality is highly regarded in Nepali society, the women militias who have spent months or years outside may not be accepted back by their families and societies. In addition, contrary to Maoists’ claims of self popularity, many reports imply people actually fear them as those who could “do anything”. In this context coexistence of Maoists and civilians might be very difficult and painful. The social rejection and contempt may lead the militia women to involve in other acute social crimes like trafficking, prostitution and petty crimes.

The government in partnership with I/NGOs may develop programs like Non Formal Education (NFA) and Skill Trainings for these children and women. But to restore their lost social status and rehabilitate them might be toughest confrontation for Government and I/NGOs in a country where social values and morals are ways of life.
A Norwegian Conflict Management trainer says that peace and arms can never coexist. Both NA and PLA have arms beyond calculations so far. This fact makes Nepal still vulnerable to the armed violence. Moreover, the reports of Maoists' recruitment drive in PLA have made all including the international community suspicious on Nepal’s enduring peace. In the Peace Accord nothing specific is mentioned regarding the long term management of the arms. Failure to effectively manage the arms make civilians especially those who have been directly involved in the war accessible to these arms. In Cambodia large number of weapons used during the civil war is left in civilians' hands. Total number of illegal Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) in Cambodia would amount to one for every 3-5 households. Not to repeat the same fate, a confidence building between the Maoist and other political parties is necessary. Maoist should by now start to regard itself as a political party without an arm. Other parties also should work together to create the environment of confidence.

On 13, February 1996 when the Maoist started its People War, Dalits (low caste group), peasants, and disadvantaged ethnic group like Tharu formed a bulk of the PLA. This composition is not an accident. The People War had started with the issues concerning land, caste system and ethnic discrimination. Therefore the People War was immediately welcomed in rural parts of Nepal where the problem and discrimination of caste, ethnicity and landholding is intense.

The Comprehensive Peace Accord bears some vital points on issues related to Land Reforms. But the land issue may not be so easy to deal in Nepal where 6% of the people possess 40% of arable land and 70% of peasants has less than one hectare of land. And 25% of households are absolutely landless. The 6% elite processors of land are also industrialists and politicians who have always played vital role in the formulation and implementation of the national policies. The leaders of Nepal will now have to be in conflict with these industrialists and politicians if land holding policies are to be revised. Will leaders “disappoint” the industrialists who provide crucial support to them during the time of elections and other political activities?

If some tangible decisions in favor of land reformation and landlessness are not taken straight away then the fact of returning to the war cannot be ruled out. After all, in the last 13 years the peasants, landless and disadvantaged ethnic groups are well trained and experienced on how to launch an organized arms violence against the State mechanisms and civilians.

There is significant risk that when a civil war ends it will soon resume as has been in case of Angola and sporadically in Uganda. Oscar Rafael Sanchez, a Costa Rican Nobel Peace Prize winner has said that, negligence towards the militias, poorly administered arm management and failure to live up the moral code of the war may favor a return to a war in form of pillaging, armed gangs’ terror, robbing and stealing. As recent examples Zaire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Somalia have proved Sanchez correct.

It might have been easier to share the dreams of egalitarian society with the militia and train them on how to shoot a person or blast a building. But it is not so easy to take the responsibility of their future, formulate sustainable legislations on their behalf and effectively stop them from going back to the war. The days in the office are indeed going to be very challenging for the leaders in Nepal.